Monday, March 31, 2014

This Grandfather Left One Final Letter, You Gotta Read...



On Sept. 3, 2012, James K. Flanagan of West Long Branch, N.J., died unexpectedly of a heart attack.
He wrote this letter to his five grandchildren just months earlier and it is reprinted here with the permission of his daughter Rachel Creighton.

Dear Ryan, Conor, Brendan, Charlie, and Mary Catherine,

My wise and thoughtful daughter Rachel urged me to write down some advice for you, the important things that I have learned about life.
I am beginning this on 8 April 2012, the eve of my 72nd birthday.

1. Each one of you is a wonderful gift of God both to your family and to all the world. Remember it always, especially when the cold winds of doubt and discouragement fall upon your life.

2. Be not afraid . . . of anyone or of anything when it comes to living your life most fully. Pursue your hopes and your dreams no matter how difficult or "different" they may seem to others.
Far too many people don't do what they want or should do because of what they imagine others may think or say. Remember, if they don't bring you chicken soup when you're sick or stand by you when you're in trouble, they don't matter.
Avoid those sour-souled pessimists who listen to your dreams then say, "Yeah, but what if . . ." The heck with "what if. . ." Do it! The worst thing in life is to look back
and say: "I would have; I could have; I should have." Take risks, make mistakes.

3. Everyone in the world is just an ordinary person. Some people may wear fancy hats or have big titles or (temporarily) have power and want you to think they are above the rest.
Don't believe them. They have the same doubts, fears, and hopes; they eat, drink, sleep, and fart like everyone else.
Question authority always but be wise and careful about the way you do it.

4. Make a Life List of all those things you want to do: travel to places; learn a skill; master a language; meet someone special. Make it long and do some things from it every year.
Don't say "I'll do it tomorrow" (or next month or next year). That is the surest way to fail to do something. There is no tomorrow, and there is no "right" time to begin something except now.

5. Practice the Irish proverb: Moi an olge agus tiocfaidh sí "Praise the child and she will flourish."

6. Be kind and go out of your way to help people -- especially the weak, the fearful, and children. Everyone is carrying a special sorrow, and they need our compassion.

7. Don't join the military or any organization that trains you to kill. War is evil. All wars are started by old men who force or fool young men to hate and to kill each other.
The old men survive, and, just as they started the war with pen and paper, they end it the same way. So many good and innocent people die. If wars are so good and noble, why aren't those leaders who start wars right up there fighting?

8. Read books, as many as you can. They are a wonderful source of delight, wisdom, and inspiration. They need no batteries or connections, and they can go anywhere.

9. Be truthful.

10. Travel: always but especially when you are young. Don't wait until you have "enough" money or until everything is "just right." That never happens. Get your passport today.

11. Pick your job or profession because you love to do it. Sure, there will be some things hard about it, but a job must be a joy. Beware of taking a job for money alone -- it will cripple your soul.

12. Don't yell. It never works, and it hurts both yourself and others. Every time I have yelled, I have failed.

13. Always keep promises to children. Don't say "we'll see" when you mean "no." Children expect the truth; give it to them with love and kindness.

14. Never tell anyone you love them when you don't.

15. Live in harmony with Nature: go into the outdoors, woods, mountains, sea, desert. It's important for your soul.

16. Visit Ireland. It's where the soul of our family was born -- especially the West: Roscommon, Clare, and Kerry.

17. Hug people you love. Tell them how much they mean to you now; don't wait until it's too late.

18. Be grateful. There is an Irish saying: "This is a day in our lives, and it will not come again." Live every day with this in mind.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Ranhill to enter Bursa listing via Reverse Take Over (RTO)





After aborting its controversial initial public offering (IPO), Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd is heading to a listing on Bursa Malaysia via a reverse takeover (RTO) of Symphony House Bhd.
The proposed takeover of the business process outsourcing (BPO) company will first see current controlling shareholder Tan Sri Azman Yahya buying over the businesses of Symphony,
leaving a listed shell for Ranhill to buy over, sources said. "It will provide Ranhill a shortcut to the equity market. It's also a cheaper option compared with an IPO and less time consuming.
 Sources said Azman would remain a shareholder of Symphony after the reverse takeover by Ranhill, which has businesses in energy and utilities.

Ranhill's IPO plans were put on hold last year after it emerged there had been a disclosure breach related to the suspension of the licences of its affiliate company,
Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd, by Petroliam Nasional Bhd for an indefinite period.

Currently Symphony House ; suspended with last traded price of RM 0.135




Source : StarBiz


P/S New Barakah in the making?

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Malaysia Airlines (MAS) stocks review by Dr. Nazri Khan

Quoted from Dr Nazri Khan's facebook.




I say it again. Malaysia Airlines (BURSA : 3786) is a super excellent buy for long term investors. A perfect buy for three year holding period.

My personal view, regardless of all MH370 Grand Theory (mostly illogical) being bandied around from (1) poor weather (2) pilot error (3) engine failure (4) Xinjiang Separatist aka Chinese 9/11 (5) pilot commit suicide (6) Asian Bermuda Triangle (7) Airasia Ops Telanjang Attacks (8) Anwar Ibrahim Court Diversion, MAS will definitely suffer loss of confidence in the short term which open up a huge buying opportunities for long term investors.

As we know MAS is facing its most severe turbulences that threatens its very survival. Hence, I personally speculate two things may happen to MAS now. Privatisation or Bankruptcy Protection.

While I believe the latter is extremely & highly unlikely (given MAS strong intangible asset), both scenario may reinvent stronger MAS over three years time frame. If there is any case, Japanese Airlines is a good example which rose miraculously from 5 Japanese cents (a day before delisted from Tokyo Stock Exchange in January 2010) to as high as Japanese Yen 3,790 immediately on relisting day in September 2012 (an absolute gain of 75,800% after three years of painful restructuring ie. cutting a third of its workforce, cancelling unprofitable routes and replacing older planes).

Three major reasons why I believe MAS is a fail-proof-long-term-investment (1) Government will not let MAS go under due to its massive strategic role to Malaysian economy (2) MAS has lasting intangible asset namely Best Airline Brand, Best Cabin Crew & Safest Airline Track Record (3) MAS has numerous business sharks ready to pounce on cheap privatisation.

The Most Likely Scenario : Privatisation, White Knight & New Leadership :

With MAS price now standing at dirt cheap of RM0.23, privatisation attempt may be highly viable as the total acquisition cost is a cheap RM4bil (MAS Total Market Cap as at Monday 10th March is RM4.1bil, the lowest in its 50 years business history). Judging from the highest volume transaction spotted yesterday, I expect more bidding sharks to quietly accumulate for control after the last Airasia-led privatisation attempt was aborted in May 2012. Exactly what we see yesterday, MAS fell the most since June 2013 (11% plunge) but made a strong turnaround to 24 sen with volume at 39.96 million shares, the highest single day transaction ever in one year. If this scenario materializes, expect MAS share price to range bound (say RM0.15 to RM0.30) with mysteriously active trade sparked by insider accumulation.

The Unlikely Worst Case Scenario : Bankruptcy Protection

Should operation continue to bleed, MAS may have no choice but to trigger a drastic bankruptcy protocols to break out from the financial doldrums and close it under creditor protection. This is highly unlikely but is still MAS last option to deal with its legacy hurdles namely the demanding union politics, overstaffing and lopsided procurement contracts (from engineering, maintenance to catering). Filing for bankruptcy under Section 176 of the Malaysian Companies Act will give MAS a fresh start and emergency room to resuscitate its operation and do what is necessary to face the cut throat competition (which include selling business units and shed staff as Japanese Airlines did). This scenario however is remote in probabilities given that MAS has strong intangible assets and MAS shareholder, national asset manager Khazanah Nasional has consistently ruled out winding down the airline. If this scenario materialize, expect a Flash Crash on MAS share price with RM0.10 as the most likely downside target for aggressive buy.

As for strategy, expect the following stocks to be the biggest losers from MH370 disaster :

(1) Airport Operator : Malaysia Airports (Bursa : 5014) : SELL

If security concerns are to be blamed, we should expect Malaysia Airports to impose more measures at higher cost. Don’t forget the repercussion may also create flight delay & cancellation, adding to the bottom line of Malaysia Airports.

(2) Tourism Player : Genting Malaysia & Shangrila (Bursa : 4715 & 5517) : SELL

Tourism may plummet in the short term, causing marginal loss with Genting as the most vulnerable targets. Following this, we should expect hotel occupancy to fall as well due to psychological distress and shorter tourist tenure immediately after the event.

(3) MAS Partner : China Southern Airlines (HKEX : 1055) : SELL

MAS operational code-share partner will get the immediate negative impacts from the repercussion as reflected by China Southern Airlines which fell 3.85% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

(4) Insurance : Willis Group Holding (NYSE : WSH) : SELL

Willis was the broker for Malaysia Airlines liability insurance cover. The size of the potential claims for workers/clients compensation following the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner can be in the tens to hundreds of millions depending on the results of the investigation.

The following companies may set to be the biggest winners :

(1) MAS Competitor : Airasia (Bursa : 5099) : STRONG BUY

The missing of MH370 will trigger short term loss of confidence for MAS and results in last minute cancellation of booking with competitors such as Airasia and Malindo to stand the most from the disaster. This is especially true given AirAsia recent foray into the medium-range (five and eight hours flight) to further steal booking of Malaysia Airlines specifically with flights to Japan and Australia.

(2) MAS Supplier : Brahim (Bursa : 9474) : STRONG BUY

Regardless of MAS direction, Brahim stand to win as the contract has been fixed and MAS must pay RM250 mil a year until contract ends in year 2028.

(3) Technology Communication Software & Security Hardware : Willow, Vitrox, iTronic and KESM (Bursa : 0008, 0097, 9393 & 9334) : BUY

The incident may force substantial resources to be put towards improving security, in the areas of communication technology be it hardware or software.

In conclusion, Buy MAS for three year time frame. Buy Airasia & Buy Brahim for one year time frame. Sell MAS for one month time frame

Good luck and all hearts to the victims of MH370.


You can keep in touch with Dr. Nazri Khan via his facebook fanpage from the link below.
https://www.facebook.com/mohdnazrikhan

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Hydrocarbon discovered in Oman by Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad JV Masirah Oil Limited

Muscat, 6 March 2014, Masirah Oil Limited, today announced the test flow rates of the previously announced discovery at second exploration well in Block 50 Oman, were very encouraging.

The exploration well was drilled to its final depth into the Cambrian formation. The key objectives of the exploration well were to prove the presence of movable hydrocarbons and a working petroleum system within the block. Several zones in the well show evidence of hydrocarbon presence.

During a 48-hour test, hydrocarbons were flowed to the surface and the well achieved light oil flow rate of up to 3000 stock tank barrels per day (sbd/d) with no water production.


This is the first offshore oil discovery in the east of Oman after more than 30 years of exploration.





















Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (HIBISCS: 5199) is Malaysia’s first listed independent exploration and production company. It was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in July 2011. Hibiscus Petroleum is focused on the exploration and development of oil and gas fields in the Middle East, Norway, South Asia, East Asia, and Oceania regions.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

UMW Oil and Gas bags Hydraulic Workover Unit ("HWU") Rig tender from PETRONAS Carigali Sdn Bhd

The Board of Directors of UMW Oil & Gas Corporation Berhad (“UMWOG”) is 

pleased to announce that UMW Petrodril (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (“UPD”) a wholly 

owned subsidiary of UMW Malaysian Ventures Sdn Bhd, which in turn is a 

wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, had and was successful in its bid for 

the provision of a Hydraulic Workover Unit ("HWU") Rig for PETRONAS Carigali 

Sdn Bhd ("PCSB")'s Workover Programme together with the provision of an 

Accommodation Work Barge ("AWB") and a Portable Crane valued at 

approximately RM148 million for an initial period of two (2) years with the option 

of an extension of one (1) year.



Saturday, March 1, 2014

Stock Pick March 2014 : Mitrajaya Holdings Berhad



Mitrajaya Holdings Berhad 4Q 2013 financial report :


Current price (28/2/2014) - RM 0.49
Target price - RM 0.90
4Q 2013 EPS - 7.43 cent
NTA - RM 0.88




The earning per share for the financial year ending 31 Dec 2013 is at 7.43 cent per share. Increased by 63% as compared to the financial year ending 31 Dec 2012 which was at 4.54 cent per share.

The board of directors is recommending a 2 cent single tier final dividend for the financial year ending 31 Dec 2013. This is to be finalized during the AGM.

I have compiled the list of Mitrajaya current order book along with the values, start date, and expectation of completion.





For the fourth quarter ended 31 December 2013, the Group's revenue increased significantly by RM34.79 million (39.1%) to RM123.88 million from RM89.09 million as reported in the preceding year's corresponding quarter. Correspondingly, the Group's profit before tax in the quarter under review rose by RM5.64 million (40.9%) to RM19.42 million from RM13.78 million in the preceding year's  corresponding quarter.


 The increase in the Group's revenue and profit before tax were mainly derived from construction, property development and healthcare divisions.

For the 12 months ended 31 December 2013, the Group's revenue of  RM338.44 million was higher by RM87.90 million (35.1%) from RM250.54 million in the 12 months of 2012,leading to a growth in the Group's profit before tax by RM12.46 million (44.8%) from RM27.84 million to RM40.30 million. All divisions has improved in their financial performance in 2013 as compared to 2012.

The Construction division's revenue increased by RM55.76 million (34.9%) from RM160.00 million to RM215.76 million for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013. And, its profit before tax improved by RM1.42 million (12.0%) from RM11.79 million to RM13.21 million for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013. The increased in both project's construction cost and finance cost has reduced the overall profit margin of this division.

The Property development division has also contributed higher external revenue of RM95.88 million for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013, RM27.88 million (41.0%) as compared to a revenue of RM68.00 million in the preceding year's corresponding period. It was mainly derived from the increased in revenue contribution from South Africa property and sales of completed units in Kiara 9.

However, with additional finance cost incurred during this period which saw it rise by RM1.32 million, its profit before tax increased by RM1.84 million (17.0%) at a lower margin from RM10.81 million to RM12.65 million. The additional finance cost was incurred to finance the on-going property projects and completed properties held for sale. 

On the back of higher revenue for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013, the Manufacturing division recorded a profit before tax of RM0.72 million as compared to a loss of RM0.48 million in the preceding year corresponding period.

The Healthcare division managed to turn around and reported a profit before tax of RM0.59 million as compared to a loss of RM2.13 million in the preceding year corresponding period. The significant improvement in financial performance was mainly due to the increased in revenue and reduction in operating expenses. The profit was mainly derived from the disposal gain of a premix plant.

 In additions, this division has written off huge amount of capital expenditure in 2012 after closure of some non-performing centers. The profit before tax from others division has increased significantly by RM3.77 million to RM3.88 million from RM0.11 million in the preceding year corresponding period. This profits was mainly derived from the disposal gain on investment in an associate company (Rawang Specialist Hospital Sdn Bhd) for RM4.22 million.

The Property division should be able to maintain its contribution for 2014 given the encouraging take-up rates for its completed properties in Kiara 9 and an on-going project in Puchong '280 Park Homes'.

Besides, the Group is actively working on the following 2 property projects with combined gross development value in excess of RM1.6 billion:

a)  Proposed development of 3 blocks of condominiums (565 units) in Wangsa Maju, Kuala Lumpur - target launching by end of 2014
b)  Proposed mixed development comprising 3 blocks of serviced apartment, 1 budget hotel and shopping mall in Taman Puchong Prima - target launching in 2015

As for our property project in South Africa, the 3 new townships launched in 2013 and early this year has recorded a good take up rate. As such, the Group is confident that this division will continue to increase its contribution  to the Group in 2014.

The Healthcare division has shown a significant improvement on its financial performance for financial year ended 31 December 2013. With its aggressive marketing strategies to boost sales, the Board is positive that this division will continue to contribute positively to the Group for the year of 2014.





Friday, February 28, 2014

Tun Daim and 2014 KLSE

Get to know this guy. Tun Daim Zainudin. The most powerful in Corporate Malaysia during the last bull run. Former Finance Minister. Held the post twice, 1984–1991 and 1998–2001.

I tell you what. Bull run is back again. Something big happening over the last few weeks. Looks like Tun Daim is cashing out his global overseas assets. Yes right. Divestment. Lots of cash and may jump big into Bursa.

This scenario is just like American Treasury secretary who is suddenly USD1bil cash-rich and set to splurge on domestic investment opportunities  

As most analyst know, Tun Daim major vehicle know is the giant USD1.32 bil London listed commercial bank, ICB Financial Group Holdings AG, which have banking subsidiaries in 14 countries across Europe, Africa and Asia. Following the recent delistings of ICB from the London Alternative Investment Market, Tun Daim looks busy selling his global banking interests and now is paring down its stakes in major subsidiary banks including Indonesia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea and Sierra Leone. 

In fact, most figures linked to Tun Daim, are also cashing out overseas business holdings and have kept a low profile in recent months.

Something brewing in the local market? 

My humble take, it looks like the honourable Tun and his tycos are raising funds aggressively, sitting on cash and waiting for something big.

The following are my personal view and three speculative bets in order of viability :

(i) Imminent Umno leadership change (ii) Massive cabinet reshuffling (iii) Return of old guards under Najibonomics II

Lots to speculate. What certain is Tun and his team are most likely positioning themselves for a big return to Malaysia. 

So what do we expect ? Bursa bull run & UMNO stocks rally should be on the cards few months from now.

Remember the old glorious Umno stocks rally. If Tun Mahathir UMNO stocks glories included Renong, Landmark, Proton, KUB and Idris Hydraulic, Tun Abdullah UMNO gems involved Equine Capital Berhad, ECM Libra Group, PECD Berhad and of course Scomi Group (though many got burned immediately after 2008 General Election, no offense). Of course, PM Najib stocks legacy will be sealed in CIMB (which goes up RM3 to RM9), UEMLand (rockets from RM0.50 to RM3.50) and the famous Sapura Kencana (jumps from RM2.00 to RM5.00). 

I believe with Tun Daim & Co imminent comeback, UMNO fortunes may skyrocket again before the next super bull run 2015-2019.

The following are the Top 50 UMNO linked stocks which in my eyes are potential stock darlings for the next speculative UMNO-rally.

CIMB BHD
MRCB BHD
GAMUDA BHD 
SAPURA KENCANA BHD 
FELDA GROUP VENTURES BHD
UEM LAND SUNRISE BHD
PUNCAK BHD
MMC CORPORATION BHD
BOUSTEAD HOLDINGS BHD 
SIME DARBY BHD
DRB-HICOM BHD
IJM BERHAD
GAS MALAYSIA BHD
TEBRAU TEGUH BHD
ECM LIBRA BHD 
FABER GROUP BHD 
TIMECOM BHD
KUB MALAYSIA BHD
LAND & GENERAL BHD 
MEDIA PRIMA BHD
MTD CAPITAL ENGINEERING BHD
NEW STRAITS TIMES PRESS BHD
PHARMANIAGA BHD
SCOMI GROUP BHD 
SCOMI ENERGY SERVICES BHD
SCOMI MARINE BHD
TRC SYNERGY BHD 
TSR CAPITAL BHD
AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD
BRAHIM BHD 
DAIMAN DEVELOPMENT BHD
UTUSAN MELAYU (M) BHD
TABUNG HAJI HEAVY ENGINEERING BHD 
PADIBERAS BHD
MALAYSIAN AIRLINES BHD
PARAMON BHD
TROPICANA BHD (FORMERLY KNOWN DIJAYA BHD)
SYMPHONY LIFE BHD (FORMERLY BOLTON BHD)
ANCOM BHD 
NYLEX BHD 
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD
MUI BHD
HIAPTECK BHD 
JOHAN BHD
GEORGE KENT BHD
ZELAN BHD

UPCOMING IPO :
1MDB BHD
NAZA TTDI BHD
ISKANDAR WATERFRONT BHD
RANHILL BHD

My Top Ten Picks :

PUNCAK BHD (Price RM3.39)
GAMUDA BHD (Price RM4.60)
BOUSTEAD BHD (Price RM5.44)
SAPURA KENCANA BHD (Price RM4.40)
FABER GROUP BHD (Price RM2.94) 
LAND & GENERAL BHD (Price RM0.52)
SCOMI GROUP BHD (Price RM0.45)
SCOMI ENERGY SERVICES BHD (Price RM1.07)
BRAHIM BHD (Price RM2.34)
TABUNG HAJI HEAVY ENGINEERING BHD (Price RM1.01) 

Buy. Hold one year. Welcome Tun & Welcome Bull Run.

Writen by Dr. Nazri Khan.
https://www.facebook.com/mohdnazrikhan